Northwest Farm Credit Services, the Northwest Farm Credit Union, has released its quarterly market overview reports covering the status of the region’s major agricultural products. Northwest FCS teams in Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington are monitoring conditions and presenting prospects for products funded by the co-op.
All market snapshots and audio highlights are posted online at nord-ouestfcs.com/industry-insights.
Northwest FCS’s 12-month outlook for the most common agricultural commodities in the Northwest is summarized below.
Slightly profitable returns are expected for producers and packers. A smaller, high-quality crop and reduced imports bode well for prices; however, reduced exports and rising costs can soften the market and decrease margins.
The 12 month outlook suggests slightly profitable returns for cow / calf producers. Cow / calf producers will face higher feed costs associated with calves born in 2022. The gradual moderation of feed costs in 2022 and higher prices for fed cattle will provide favorable winds for the profitability of farmers. feeder cattle until 2023.
The dairy outlook suggests slightly profitable returns. Profitability will depend on the destination of the milk and the price of milk in the producers’ letterbox. Milk price futures began to rise in the third quarter of 2021. Dairies actively managing risk and breakeven costs will be able to lock in prices at or above the breakeven point. .
Fishing should be profitable. As the fishery faces challenges with evolving TACs, a closed king crab fishery and potential COVID-19 blockages in 2022, consumers continue to demand seafood and prices are high for all products.
The outlook is for manufacturers of forest products to be very profitable and owners of woodlots as profitable. After an avalanche of prices, wood has recovered and shows a strong upward trend. Log prices have remained relatively constant after a sharp rise in prices at the start of the quarter. Overall, the forest products industry is expected to benefit from strong housing demand in 2022.
The outlook for the hay industry calls for profitable returns. Extremely low stocks will keep hay prices high for much of 2022. Rising input prices will affect producer profitability.
Nursery / Greenhouse
Strong profits are expected for the nursery / greenhouse industry. Producers continue to benefit from a robust housing market and increased interest in landscaping and gardening. Rising input costs and the scarcity of labor exert pressure on margins and limit production capacities; however, consumers are willing to pay higher prices and producers have improved their efficiency.
The profit outlook for onions suggests balanced yields. Producers who still have large 2021 onions in stock will be in a good position to take advantage of higher prices. Profitability in 2022 will depend on growing conditions; an increase in humidity is needed to compensate for the shortages of 2021. Rising input costs will create obstacles for the profitability of producers.
Potato growers under contract should be profitable. Open potato yields are expected to be slightly profitable. The amount of acres of non-contract potatoes will likely decrease, as a higher cost of production will encourage growers to move non-contract acres to other products. Fuel and fertilizer costs will continue to increase until 2022.
Profitable returns are expected for sugar beets. Rising input prices will provide headwinds, but favorable payments to producers will offset rising costs.
The 12-month profitability outlook anticipates slight profits for pear growers and packers. Although exports continue to slow the movement of crops, the quality is excellent, domestic demand remains strong and the reduction in pear acreage is improving overall market conditions. Fruit size has improved total yield this year and high prices should dampen rising input costs.
Profitable incomes are expected for wheat producers. High prices, crop insurance payments, and government programs have cushioned potential losses from low production in 2021. Implementing crop insurance and grain marketing strategies will boost the profitability of small grains .
Wine / Vineyard
The 12-month outlook anticipates profits for the vineyards and slight profits for the wineries. Although the crop size is smaller than historical averages, low stocks and high demand are pushing up grape prices. Consumers continue to demonstrate their willingness to buy more expensive wines; however, consumption remains stable, and rising input costs and supply shortages will limit yields.